The confidence-capability gap

Recently, I was facilitating a leadership workshop and we were discussing leadership readiness and future career opportunities when one brave participant paused and said, “I don’t know if I’m ready for something bigger yet.”

From the outside, she was very ready. Her colleagues respected her, she consistently delivered results, and she had already demonstrated her ability to lead increasingly complex work.

As the discussion continued, I noticed a few other people around the room starting to nod. A couple admitted they felt exactly the same way. One participant shared, “It’s funny because if you asked me who in this room is ready for more responsibility, she’d be one of the first people I’d point to.” The room smiled because everyone understood the irony.

Capability and confidence do not always move at the same pace.

Why capable leaders underestimate themselves

One of the most fascinating aspects of leadership development is observing the difference between how people see themselves and how others experience them. Many leaders expect confidence to increase as they gain experience. In reality, capability often grows much faster.

People achieve remarkable things while quietly questioning whether they deserve their success. They take on bigger projects, solve complex problems, and lead teams through challenging situations while privately wondering if they are truly ready for what comes next.

I’ve worked with leaders who are highly effective in their roles while privately questioning whether they’re doing enough. Their self-doubt is rarely a reflection of lack of capability. More often, it reflects the (excessively) high standards they hold themselves to and the responsibility they feel towards others.

Confidence is often associated with certainty. In practice, it can look much more ordinary. It is the willingness to keep contributing, making decisions, and moving forward despite unanswered questions.

Why success doesn’t always create confidence

A pattern we uncover early in our leadership programs is how quickly high performers focus on what they still lack. They focus on the experience they haven’t had yet, the qualification they don’t possess, or the skill they haven’t fully mastered. Their attention becomes fixed on the distance still to travel rather than the progress they have already made.

Psychologists refer to this as the “arrival fallacy” – the belief that confidence will arrive once we reach the next milestone.

The challenge is that the milestone keeps moving.

A promotion creates a new set of expectations. A larger role introduces different challenges. The goal that once felt significant quickly becomes the starting point for the next one.

Psychologist Albert Bandura’s research on self-efficacy found that confidence grows through mastery experiences. Successfully navigating challenges strengthens our belief in our ability to handle future challenges.

Yet many capable leaders spend far more time analysing their gaps than recognising the evidence already sitting in front of them.

A different way to think about confidence

Later in the program, another participant shared an observation that resonated strongly with the group.

“I think I keep assuming everyone else feels more certain than I do.”

The room immediately responded with knowing smiles.

The longer I work with leaders, the more I notice how common this experience is. Many highly capable people assume everyone else feels more confident than they are. In actual fact, even the most successful leaders still experience self-doubt. They simply stop treating it as proof they are not ready. They expect it occasionally and lean into the discomfort.

Over time, I’ve become less interested in confidence as a feeling and more interested in confidence as a behaviour. The leaders who continue growing are often the people who take the next step before they feel fully prepared. They trust that clarity will emerge through action rather than waiting until every doubt has disappeared.

A powerful shift happens when people stop asking, “Do I feel ready?” and start asking, “What evidence already exists that I am capable?”

Because the most capable person in the room is not always the most certain.

And the evidence that you’re ready is often already in plain sight.